The Ukrainian online publication Bizmag has summed up the results of nearly four years of full-scale war and offered a forward-looking analysis of Ukraine’s economic trajectory in the years ahead. The article explores how the nation’s economy has managed not only to survive under constant attacks but also to adapt and grow, defying traditional economic logic. Below is the full text of Bizmag’s in-depth feature on “Ukraine’s Economy Under Missile Rain.”
The Ukrainian economy today resembles a phoenix that burns in the fire of rocket attacks each night, only to rise from the ashes every morning and go back to work. It lives, evolves, and even grows despite everything that should make such growth impossible. In 2024, real GDP increased by 2.9%—not just a number in a report, but a challenge to every macroeconomics textbook. How do you explain growth in a country where a night can begin with an air raid alert and end in darkness without electricity? Perhaps only by admitting that Ukraine’s economy has long outgrown “classical models.”
The Paradox of Growth in Wartime
The copyright forecasted 4% growth in 2024, but reality, as always, made its adjustments. The World Bank lowered expectations to 2%, and not without reason—each strike on the energy sector sets off a domino effect: industry slows, logistics are delayed, services halt. The economy functions, but its breathing is heavy, ragged—like after running a marathon through a storm.
The main problem lies in human capital. The labor shortage has turned into genuine “economic anemia.” Millions of Ukrainians are abroad, others are at the front. The labor market has shrunk, and now every skilled worker is fought over like scarce currency. Businesses raise wages, but profits remain unstable, and risks grow exponentially. Economists estimate that due to the non-return of refugees, Ukraine may lose between 2.7% and 6.9% of its GDP annually. And this isn’t dry statistics—it’s lost opportunities, unbuilt factories, unrealized startups.
International Support: Lifeline or Dependency?
Ukraine’s state budget now resembles a complex engineering structure held up by external support beams. In the first half of 2025, the Ministry of Finance attracted $22 billion in external financing. Over the past three and a half years—more than $145 billion. And while that figure is impressive, the budget gap remains: another $8.7 billion is needed for 2025.
This model creates a kind of economic paradox: the state can pay salaries to doctors, teachers, and soldiers—but not from its own resources. It’s like breathing through a ventilator: you live, but not on your own. The question “for how long?” becomes strategic. Any political shift in Washington or Brussels could instantly rewrite Ukraine’s financial forecasts.
Today, the IMF, EU, USA, and World Bank are embedded in the DNA of Ukraine’s economy. Without them, the system could stall. Domestic budget revenues grow slower than the needs of the front. Balancing on the edge of fiscal stability is like walking on thin ice—one wrong step, and the water beneath is freezing cold.
Lessons for Recovery
The future of Ukraine’s economy depends on three variables: the duration of the war, the scale of reconstruction, and the return of people. A growth rate of around 2% in 2026 looks realistic, though far from transformative. The 5% mark may be reached only by 2027—and that’s if the stars align and no new missiles take off.
Rebuilding the destroyed is not a one- or even three-year task. Bridges, power stations, hospitals—all require not just money, but time, manpower, and consistency. And as long as the war continues, the pace of destruction often outstrips the pace of reconstruction. It’s like trying to fill a bathtub with the drain open—the water flows in, but never stays.
The return of refugees could become the “economic accelerator” that changes everything. But that will require more than just peace—it demands livable conditions: jobs, security, prospects. Because without people, no GDP can grow.
The Survival Phenomenon
Ukraine has already created a new model of wartime economy—one that is unique in world history. It didn’t merely “hold on”—it adapted, made resources work under bombardment, and proved that economics is, above all, a psychological category.
Yes, in dollar terms, Ukraine’s GDP in 2024 reached about $188.8 billion—still below the pre-war level of $199.8 billion in 2021. But that difference isn’t a failure—it’s evidence that the country is alive, fighting, and unwilling to surrender.
Ukraine’s experience is a reminder to the world: economics isn’t only about money. It’s about willpower, adaptability, and the ability to stand when everything around collapses. We’ve already proven we can survive under fire. Now, we must prove we can rebuild—and live without it.
Authored by the editorial team of “Bizmag” https://bizmag.com.ua/ekonomika-ukrayiny-v-umovah-vijny/